The Bridgestone Canadian Superbike Championship is fully in its quiet season, with the Canada Day weekend signifying the halfway point of what is a six-week break between national races.
That means that – while the official halfway mark won’t be until the middle of round three of five at Atlantic Motorsport Park – the series unofficially finds itself in the heart of the mid-summer break, where narratives change from “hot starts” to legitimate title threats.
With the second half of the season on the horizon, here’s five questions for some of the closest championship battles ahead of round three on the east coast.
Can Young complete the GP Bikes Pro Superbike comeback?
Luck hasn’t been Ben Young’s friend in the first two rounds, with a loose tail-section forcing him into the pits in race two (finishing sixth) and a crash on the warmup lap of race four (finishing eleventh) leaving him 36 points adrift of rival Alex Dumas.
Make no mistake; Dumas hasn’t put a foot wrong either, earning every bit of his championship lead, but it’s safe to say Young’s true potential is still yet to be shown entering the second half of the season.
So how does the math look for the reigning champion? Well, winning all seven races with Dumas finishing second would produce roughly a 42-point swing (depending on qualifying points and lap led bonuses), but fending off the 2021 champion seven times in a row may prove to be an impossible ask.
This means that Young will likely need a big swing to go his way somewhere, and it’s easy to look at the next round at AMP and choose there. It was in race one a year ago, after all, that Dumas crashed out and handed a huge advantage to Young, before the BMW rider won again on Sunday.
But this time Dumas has a cushion to fall back on, and a pair of second-place finishes would give him roughly a 22-point lead entering the final five races. That seems a lot more manageable for Young across the final two rounds, but the pair are tied 3-3 in their head-to-head battle at CTMP, and Dumas just won both opening races at Shannonville.
Even a pair of Dumas victories could prove to be the difference, and it’s hard not to envision that happening somewhere along the way. Young is never one to count out, but the path forward will be a steep hill to climb.
Can another new champion be crowned in Liqui Moly Pro Sport Bike?
Easily the most unpredictable category, the Pro Sport Bike class has seen four different champions in the last four seasons, three of them first-time winners. It looked like it would be a lock for that trend to continue in 2023, before 2021 champion Sebastien Tremblay returned to the fold in Grand Bend.
So, who can keep this trend going? Well, the obvious answer is either championship leader David MacKay, or former points frontrunner Matt Simpson.
Both remain ahead of Tremblay – as does Shannonville race two winner Brad Macrae in third overall – with a 33-point cushion separating Simpson from Tremblay.
But history favours the former champion, and he will be the slam-dunk favourite for a pair of victories next time out in AMP. While CTMP is always tough to predict, Tremblay has also won five in a row in his Sport Bike career there, meaning it’s possible the Suzuki star could be right in the thick of things by the final round in Shannonville.
It’s possible one of Macrae, Connor Campbell, or Elliot Vieira could also go on a historic run to get back into championship contention, but the likeliest scenario is that either MacKay or Simpson will need to keep Tremblay at bay.
Neither has had a terrific past at AMP, but each rider has stepped on the podium at both CTMP and Shannonville, with Simpson winning his first career race at ‘Old Mosport’ a season ago.
Both are capable of finding enough consistency over the final six races to hoist their first national championship, but all it can take is one wrong step to completely undo that – something Tremblay will be anxiously waiting for.
Can Cyr complete the rare Amateur sweep?
What Mavrick Cyr is doing so far in 2023 isn’t just incredible, it’s outright historic. Not even considered the championship favourite entering the season, the 18-year-old has won both races in AIM Insurance Amateur Superbike and both in Scorpion EXO Amateur Sport Bike.
There are still five more races to come in each category, but the question has to be asked: can Cyr go 14-for-14?
A small collection of riders has swept an individual Amateur class in CSBK history, but not since the advent of Amateur Superbike in 2011 has anyone ever swept both ranks.
The betting odds aren’t in his favour, especially given the lurking Andrew Cooney who seems destined to win his first race soon, but the fact that it is even a question shows how inch-perfect Cyr has been in 2023.
The Triumph rider will be the favourite at AMP and again in the final round at Shannonville, meaning it may just be a pair of races at CTMP that stand between him and a spot all alone in the record books.
Can anyone stop Williams in Bickle Racing Pro Twins?
It’s admittedly been a small crop of riders in the first season of the Pro Twins class, but you can only beat who you race against, and Jeff Williams has absolutely crushed everyone he’s seen.
The Aprilia rider returned to the series after a frightening Pro Superbike crash in 2020 and has been simply untouchable in his four races thus far, regularly fighting his way up the combined grid with Pro Sport Bike and fighting some of the bigger, faster machines.
The inaugural crown may already be his to lose, but the question is if anyone can keep him from a perfect season. West coast teenager Andrew Van Winkle has taken incredible strides in his debut year, but it may be a tough ask for him at this point in his career.
It will likely take a new entrant into the class to dethrone Williams, and AMP has certainly provided those over the years. Many regional stars with track expertise have shown up and surprised at the national level, and the latest shock may be right around the corner, as many look to keep Williams from going ten-for-ten in 2023.
Who will take the outright EBC Brakes Lightweight Pro/Am championship?
The Lightweight Pro/Am is usually focused on each individual title fight, where Stacey Nesbitt currently leads the Pro division and Vincent Wilson sits atop the Amateur split.
But who can take the bragging right as the outright champ?
In the inaugural year of the class it was Pro champion Jared Walker who took that honour, scoring 217 points to comfortably out-pace Amateur winner Bryce DeBoer with 160. Things are much closer in year two, however, as Nesbitt’s 97 points are marginally clear of Wilson with an even 75.
That’s likely to close at AMP as well, as Nesbitt – though an experienced rider at the east coast circuit – will have to contend with local legend Gary McKinnon, amongst others, while New Brunswick star Wilson is the overwhelming Amateur favourite.
Both will surely be focused on just taking home their individual championships, with hardly a safe cushion on either side, but it’s hard not to think the mantle of being an outright Pro/Am champion is in the back of their minds.
